The Manny Debate

Figured I'd return from a nearly 9 month vacation to throw out a couple thoughts on the Sox. Fair warning... this ended up as much longer than I thought it would.

At this point, anyone who knows what a baseball looks like is probably aware that the Boston Red Sox shipped Manny across the country to the LA Dodgers this week, thus ending 7+ years of unpredictability and varied levels of Boston-based discontent for one of the best hitters who ever lived. Manny leaves with two World Series rings, a World Series MVP, and lots of memories, though not all of them are about him playing great baseball.

In return, the Sox wind up with former Pittsburgh Pirate Jason Bay. There's more to this deal - Boston also sent Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to Pittsburgh, while the Dodgers sent Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to Pittsburgh as well. But I'm in Boston, so I'm gonna look at the impact of the two big pieces - Manny and Jason Bay.

I will say from the start that, given my choice on the matter, Manny wouldn't have gone anywhere. Attitude issues aside, the man is a threat to beat the leather off of a baseball every time he steps in to bat. I have no reason to believe that this would have changed over the next two months had Manny stayed in Boston. But Theo Epstein does not (yet) ask my opinion about roster moves and adjustments, so Manny was sent packing.

Over his tenure as The Powers That Be at Fenway Park, Epstein has gotten more right than he has wrong. Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena? Wrong. Edgar Renteria? Wrong. Kevin Cash over Dougie Mirabelli... ugh. Even Coco Crisp and the offensive black hole that is Julio Lugo... wrong. But on the other side... Pedroia. Youkilis. Papelbon. Ellsbury. Lester. Buchholz (despite current struggles). Drew (even though we all hated him until the World Series last year). Dice-K. Okajima. Potential in Masterson and Lowrie.

Theo knows how to separate out the good from the bad. The trade of Nomar Garciaparra in 2004 was a gut-wrenching, heart-breaking affair... but ultimately, it was the right move. It dropped pressure in the clubhouse, and let the team get back to being that... a team. From Theo's perspective, he had the very daunting task of looking at this one player, a player who had for years been the face and heart of the team, and saying whether or not that was worth keeping him around if his play was suffering. Weighing Nomar's value as a symbol or character against Nomar's actual value at shortstop and in a batting lineup... I don't think I could have made that call. But he did. And four years later, the Red Sox have 2 world titles. After a lackluster stint with the Cubs, Nomar only played in 62 games for the Dodgers in 2005. This year, he's played in only 27 of their 99 games. And his numbers have never touched those of the late '90s. Love the guy, but the Sox dodged a bullet. (Keep in mind, this isn't Nomar's fault. Something happened when he was hit on the wrist in late 1999, and the most dominant shortstop in the game never got back to that level. Had Al Reyes never thrown that pitch, Nomar might never have changed from the next Ted Williams.)

Pedro went a similar route. Apparent bad blood between the two sides, with repeated claims that Pedro had been disrespected by the management. This was again, sad as it was, a player in decline. He, like Nomar was absolutely stunning at the turn of the century. 23 wins, 313 strikeouts in 1999. Won Cy Young, finished 2nd in MVP voting. Similar numbers in 2000, an off, injury-shortened year in 2001, back to good old Pedro in 2002 and 2003. The Grady Incident in the ALCS was the killer. One inning too many. That was how close Pedro came to deleting the Red Sox ugly history. Pedro's number in 2004 were by no means bad, but they lacked the dominance that he had shown previously. Once again, Theo had to look at this guy, weigh the emotional value vs. the baseball value. Once again, baseball value had to win. And once again, Theo was right. Pedro declined his offered contract from the Sox... he seemed insulted by the contract offered. He signed with the Mets, had one good season in 2005- good for that Pedro, but mediocre for Pedro the Baseball God. Fro 2006 to the present, he is 15-11 in 38 games, mostly because he hasn't been able to get through the last two years without a significant injury. Another potential catastrophe avoided.

Incidents since have been smaller. Johnny Damon was a textbook example of Theo's negotiating process, which is setting a value on a player and not going over that value. The Yankees apparently valued Damon more than the Sox did. What really seemed to lower Damon's value in Theo's eyes - and what the Yanks didn't see coming - was that Damon's speed and versatility were on their last legs. He by no means done as a player, or as a good player, but the attributes that made him unique and attractive to the Sox were on the outs. On a side note, the personality lobotomy he apparently had to endure when he shaved his facial hair - a requirement of joining the Yankees - didn't help him on any fronts either.

Curt Schilling is another chapter that is still being finished. Controversy arose that Schilling knew he wasn't healthy prior to the Sox signing him to a one-year deal for 2008. Schill hasn't thrown a pitch in a regular season game this year. At this point, it's really just his word against his, and it could very well never get conclusively resolved. Personally... it doesn't seem like Schilling's style. On top of that, I think the Sox were right to sign him to the deal, if only to get the guarantee that Curt will retire with the Sox. He's a definite Hall of Famer, and if that $8M guarantees that he ends his career here, where he made such a profound impact, so be it.

All that leads me to Manny. In 7 1/2 seasons with the Sox, Manny belted 294 home runs, averaging just over 39 a season. His other offensive numbers are equally impressive. Every Boston year but last year, Manny earned a Silver Slugger award. But that's the trick. Last year. Last year, his HR production dropped to 20 from 35 in 2006, which itself had dropped from 45 in 2005. RBIs dropped similarly. Once again, he's still one of the best hitters in the game, but that doesn't mean quite as much as it did two or four years ago.

Bottom line, really, is that Manny is getting old(er). He turned 36 in May, and his numbers are doing what you would expect from any slugger in his mid-30s. He's still more than capable, and if the game is on the line and Manny's at bat, Dodgers fans can feel good, because they have a chance to win it. But the Red Sox have made it clear over the past couple years that they will do whatever they need to do in order to contend. At the end of this year, the club held a $20M option on Manny. $20M for a 36/37 year old slugger in decline to play on the Sox in 2009. Because it is Manny, this isn't necessarily a bad deal. Like I said, every at bat is a potential screamer over the wall. But with Jason Bay, the Sox get a guy with numbers not too far off from Manny. They have him next year for $7.5M (the last year of the deal he signed with the Pirates before 2006). And all of that is in a guy 6 years younger than Manny. If Bay can hold his numbers on the pace he's on now, the deal is worthwhile. If he improves, and Manny at all continues his current decline this year or into next year, the trade was a steal. Unfortunately, I really don't think we'll know the final outcome until the end of the regular season at the earliest.

What has become somewhat bittersweet about being a Red Sox fan is that the vast resources at Theo Epstein's disposal allow him to always get the best of the best. Trust me, I am in no way complaining that the Sox have the money to get anyone they want. It's great when those players are at the top of their game. What makes it difficult, and what Theo is apparently better than I am at dealing with, is the attachment. As fans, it is sometimes difficult to take a player that is beloved and recognize that it is time to move on. Nomar and Pedro are prime examples of this. Fan favorites doesn't cover it. They were icons. Despite that, Theo recognized that as good as they were, it had reached the point where he could put together a better team without them. He did it. He made the tough call. He took some heat for it at the time, but history has proven him correct. Will it with Manny? I don't know. But I trust him.

To a certain extent, I almost hope that this is a "bad" trade. Not that Jason Bay falters, but that Manny rebounds and puts up numbers in LA that are so stellar they remind us of Manny in 2001-2004. Because great as he is, he doesn't have much time left where he has a chance at those numbers. I hope he tears up the NL West just like he did the AL East. (I can say that with some confidence, since the chance that any team from the NL West would be meeting the Red Sox or any team from the AL in the 2008 World Series are very slim. I doubt even Manny at his best can handle that burden.) I hope he gets the deal he wants from someone at the end of the year, even if it won't be the Red Sox. Ultimately, I find that I can wish Manny well and send him on his way with no ill will, despite all the controversy, because like so many of the great players who have come and gone through Fenway Park, I know that we had him at his best.

Thanks, Manny. Good luck.